Race for Governor: The Final Weekend : Bradley’s Camp Ending Campaign With Mixture of Hope, Pessimism

STOCKTON — The mood in the Democratic camp ranges from Tom Bradley’s determined hope to deep pessimism among some supporters as the mayor nears the finish of a frustrating gubernatorial campaign that has been dogged with trouble since it began.

Although several Democratic activists around the state said in interviews last week that they feared that Bradley, who is behind in the polls, would lose, hope was the mood Saturday as the mayor took a campaign train trip through the Central Valley.

Speaking to crowds of 100 to 200 gathered around the rear platform of the observation car, the mayor tried to evoke memories of past Democratic glories--Harry Truman beating Tom Dewey in 1948 and Robert Kennedy, whistle-stopping through this same valley on his way to his 1968 victory in the California presidential primary election .

“We are determined we will take this election in our hands,” Bradley told about 200 people at the Amtrak station in Bakersfield, the first stop in a trip that ended in Stockton.

Urging support in the fight against Republican Gov. George Deukmejian, Bradley said: “We’re going to take it away from the special interests, those powerful rich interests who have funded my opponent’s campaign.

“To those polluters who have given so much to Deukmejian, to the insurance industry which has tried so hard to control the man they like . . , we’re going to send a message that this state belongs to all of the people, not just the special interests.”

That is the theme Bradley has embraced from the outset, and which he hopes will give him victory.

But public opinion polls, and interviews with Bradley backers indicate that so far the attack has not been enough to blunt the governor’s drive for a second term--and that a Bradley victory would be a long-remembered upset.

Bradley’s insistence on stricter pollution regulation, coupled with his support of Proposition 65, the toxic-control initiative, attracted opposition here in the Central Valley where the mayor was met by representatives of farm groups carrying signs urging a no vote on the ballot measure.

But his target during this trip was not agribusiness, which is expected to support Deukmejian. Bradley concentrated instead on appealing to organized labor, which helped provide crowds, blacks and Latinos--the groups the mayor is urging to the polls in the final days. That point was emphasized when Assembly Speaker Willie L. Brown, (D-San Francisco), a black liberal, enthusiastically introduced Bradley in Merced and Stockton, where conservative voters outnumber liberals.

Bradley was cheerful during the 250-mile train trip. He laughed as Brown told stories in the press car. And, earlier, as Bradley looked out a window at cotton fields north of Bakersfield, he told a story himself.

He recalled how he picked cotton when he was 7 years old--for one day. “That was enough, I never did fill that 25-pound sack,” he said.

Bradley also talked about how government will change if he wins. “This administration is going to care about education, from the teacher to the students,” he said.

It is hard to pick out the specifics of a Bradley administration from a campaign in which both sides concentrated on image-building and slashing attacks. But Bradley has made it clear that he would increase regulation of insurance companies and of industries that cause pollution. He also would oppose offshore oil drilling, use some of the state financial surplus to increase education spending and to tighten state enforcement of industrial safety laws. More minorities and women would be appointed to state jobs. More overseas state offices would be opened to increase trade.

However, in a year preoccupied with political survival, the Bradley camp has had no time to spend making detailed plans for a move to Sacramento, as there was in 1982 when the mayor expected to win, and then lost narrowly to Deukmejian.

In this campaign, Bradley and his aides desperately raised money for television ads and the mayor raced around the state, usually on commercial airliners, trying to catch up. At the end, campaign chairman Tom Quinn said that despite months of hitting the polluter theme, Bradley still has not succeeded in painting the governor as a failure.

“No, we’ve had a very tough job,” Quinn said in an interview. “The problem has been that we have attempted to point up failures in the Deukmejian record but he has had so much money to spend to sell his record that it has made it tough to get through with criticism. He has basically overwhelmed us on television with massive amounts of spending and made it a lot tougher for us.”

But veteran campaigner Quinn also looked for signs of hope, a common practice among the beleaguered crew of Bradley staffers, most of them young, who have survived 10 hard months with a mixture of youthful optimism, combativeness, camaraderie and humor.

By borrowing $284,250 recently, boosting his total debt to more than $1.1 million, the mayor has been able to mount a final, strong television campaign against the governor.

“This is the first week of the entire campaign when we are reasonably competitive with Deukmejian,” Quinn said. “While we won’t be able to match him dollar for dollar, I think (the additional Bradley commercials) will make a difference.

“I think this is unpredictable. We obviously have an election where there is very little voter interest. It is also a very volatile electorate with big swings week to week. It indicates to me the commitment to both candidates is not very strong. Deukmejian, despite his enormous amount of spending, has failed to solidify his base, has failed to build any emotional commitment.”

That analysis does not square with published polls, which have shown Deukmejian solidly ahead throughout the race. Nor does it match the opinions of several Bradley supporters around the state, interviewed during the final week of campaigning.

“Looks tough, looks tough,” said Mickey Kantor, Los Angeles attorney and Democratic Party activist who has been an occasional adviser to the Bradley side.

‘Too Little, Too Late’

“No, he can’t win it; too little, too late, “ said a black political leader who refused to be quoted by name.

“I will be pleasantly surprised if he wins,” said Paul Albritton, a San Francisco attorney who is one of the coordinators of the mayor’s Run for California, an attempt to get publicity, grass-roots support and money by enlisting volunteers to run a relay race from San Diego to the Capitol.

The idea was to evoke memories of the 1984 Summer Olympics, which were brought to Los Angeles under Bradley’s leadership and which started with the Torch Relay to the Coliseum, touching off great public support for the Games.

There was early misfortune. A runner, Harold Huang, died of a heart attack in Los Angeles’ Chinatown. But Quinn said the run has brought in $150,000 in donations above and beyond the estimated $250,000 cost of staging the event.

The run and the Saturday campaign train trip are attempts to end the campaign on a wave of publicity designed to create a feeling of movement toward unexpected victory.

Bradley clearly enjoyed greeting the relays of runners in cities on their northward route. But he seemed uncomfortable with other publicity-seeking moves, such as appearing with a dummy labeled Deukmejian (emphasizing the governor’s refusal to debate), referring to the governor as “Duckmejian” or using especially tough words in his speeches.

“It’s tough out there on the campaign trail when you are trying to make a lead in a newspaper story or 20 seconds on TV,” Quinn said. “Tom Bradley’s style is more thoughtful. Maybe he is trying to push too hard to communicate.”

If Bradley wins, however, the harsh attacks, especially those centered on the toxic pollution issue, will get much of the credit. In the key decision of the campaign, Quinn, as soon as money was available, put blunt commercials on the air attacking the governor as a supporter of polluters. Bradley immediately began climbing in the polls, which also showed deep public concern about the issue. Another important decision, made early by Deputy Mayor Tom Houston and then-campaign manager Mary Nichols, was to link Bradley’s campaign with that of Proposition 65, the toxic control measure, in the hope that support for that proposal would wash off on the mayor.

Early on, at Bradley’s insistence, a priority was placed on working hard at getting out the minority vote and mobilizing the black community behind electing a black governor. Then, in October, Bradley dramatically confronted the racial issue in a speech to a statewide Democratic meeting, urging support from white voters who might be reluctant to vote for a black. The move also inspired praise from black supporters, who said it would help the mayor in their communities.

Criticizes Party Pros

But one campaign worker, familiar with the get-out-the-vote effort, said, “I haven’t seen one thing to show me the pros of the Democratic Party know what they are doing.”

From the beginning, Bradley had to overcome internal dissension and mistakes. Among the errors were actions that alienated important constituency groups--his slowness in condemning anti-Semitic remarks of Louis Farrakhan, the Black Muslim minister; his alienation of Los Angeles-area environmentalists by approving oil drilling in the Pacific Palisades, and his change of heart on gun control, angering liberals by saying that he would no longer support a control measure if it were on the ballot.

“I believe the mayor was hurt by the handling of the Farrakhan matter, but I don’t believe the outcome of the election will be influenced . . . (by it),” said Marshall Grossman, a Los Angeles attorney and Jewish community leader who was critical of Bradley but is supporting him against Deukmejian. But he said it hurt Bradley’s attempt to portray himself as a strong leader.

“I think the Farrakhan affair reinforced a stereotype that has dogged the mayor, and which his detractors have been able to put into a broader mosaic, issues such as the drilling permit, gun control and broad concern over lack of direction . . . (in) city planning,” Grossman said.

In the last few months, said Democratic activist John Emerson, an attorney, “a campaign which was initially criticized for a number of miscues seems to have gotten over those hurdles.” But he said that past mistakes, plus heavy advertising by the well-financed Deukmejian drive, “has made it very, very tough for the Bradley campaign.”

As the train trip ended, Bradley sought to rally his forces against his favored foe.

“I’ve just begun to run,” said Bradley. “We’re in the home stretch now. As an old track man, I know this is where the energy comes, when you lift your knees and run your guts out.”