Mexico Race for Presidency--a New Look

MEXICO CITY — Some observers liken it to a beauty contest, others to the appearance of well-behaved schoolboys at an oral examination, but whatever the comparison, last week’s televised debut of the ruling party’s officially designated candidates has given Mexico’s presidential campaign a new, if limited, open look.

Each of the six candidates is appearing before a 90-member commission of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party to explain why he should be its nominee. Never in the 60-year history of the party have Mexican presidential candidates taken part in such a naked performance.

In the past, everyone knew who was in the running, either through leaks to the press or well-orchestrated comments of minor functionaries, even if the candidates themselves never admitted to any ambitions. On the contrary, each was expected to feign disinterest, a performance in the practiced political theater of the absurd.

That traditional coyness was ended in mid-August when party chief Jorge de la Vega publicly named six candidates as possible successors to President Miguel de la Madrid. Although the names were the same as those that had been bandied about publicly since the spring, at least everyone could stop pretending.

“They have to publicly put their best foot forward, and that’s something completely new,” said Jorge Castaneda, an economist and political commentator.

The exposure of the six, popularly known as los tapados --the covered ones--and their appearance on television will not, for now, affect the traditional method of selecting the party’s nominee, political observers say. All the candidates are close associates of the president, and De la Madrid, as outgoing incumbent, will hand-pick a successor from among them in late September or early October.

If events follow form, there will be no floor fight at the as-yet-unscheduled convention of the party, which is widely known by its Spanish initials PRI. A PRI delegate will simply pop up at some point and announce De la Madrid’s selection, and the other delegates will back it by acclamation.

The PRI nominee inevitably becomes Mexico’s chief of state; since its founding in 1929, the PRI has never lost a presidential vote. The election is scheduled for next July, and the new president begins his six-year term the following December.

Significant Political Shift

Still, unveiling the candidates early is considered a significant shift in what often appears to be an unchangeable system of politics.

“Although for now only the form has changed, it bodes well that in the future, deeper changes will come,” said Lorenzo Meyer, who heads the Colegio de Mexico, a think tank on the outskirts of Mexico City.

The move follows months of criticism from outside and inside the PRI that Mexico’s presidential selection process has become more of a coronation than a nomination and is out of step with the times. In a typical attack on the system, Jorge Hernandez, a columnist for the newspaper Uno Mas Uno, commented: “All around us, we see changes in the world. Only we appear mired in a swamp of our own invention, without real alternatives.”

Three of the candidates delivered speeches to the PRI commission last week, and the rest will follow this week. Each aspirant was asked to present some sort of vision of how Mexico will operate under his administration. Heretofore, such statements were reserved until after the nomination was settled.

Cautious Performances

The candidates are performing cautiously. The first three have spoken mainly in generalities. None has attacked his rivals nor made any direct criticism of the outgoing administration. None is expected to.

“They are all in the same bind. Each must deliver a program for the next term without hinting that anything is wrong this term,” said Adrian Lajous, author of several books on Mexican politics and the presidential succession.

Indeed, the speeches, given their soft tone, could have been written by De la Madrid himself. The candidates are appearing in alphabetical order so as not to fuel speculation as to who exactly will be the eventual nominee, or el bueno (the good one) as he is known in Mexico’s well-developed political slang.

Many observers say the “good one” will be Alfredo del Mazo, who spoke Friday. Del Mazo, 43, is De la Madrid’s secretary of energy, mining and state-owned industries. His has been a quick rise to prominence. De la Madrid brought him into the Cabinet last year from his post as governor of the state of Mexico.

Del Mazo emphasized that inflation should be a primary concern of the government, although he stopped short of blaming it on the present administration. The annual rate of inflation in Mexico is running at about 120%.

Economic Policy Parroted

Del Mazo virtually parroted De la Madrid’s economic policy of promoting exports as a way out of Mexico’s current economic problems.

“We have to persevere in reconversion, that is, the liberation of the national capacity of development,” he said.

One reason for Del Mazo’s virtual front-runner status, besides his closeness to De la Madrid, is a reported endorsement by the country’s leading labor boss, Fidel Velasquez. Velasquez gave Del Mazo his first government job, as head of a union bank, and is considered something of a godfather to the candidate.

Still considered a strong possibility is Manuel Bartlett Diaz, the secretary of the interior. Bartlett Diaz, 51, spoke Wednesday. The Interior Ministry is the Mexican government’s security and intelligence arm and is traditionally a source of successful presidential candidates.

Bartlett Diaz avoided offering any specific solutions to Mexico’s problem, promising only “more democracy, more organization, more responsibility, and more social justice.” Sometimes his speech seemed as much in praise of De la Madrid as an advertisement for himself.

‘Governed in Crisis’

“Miguel de la Madrid has governed during a crisis. He has done it in peace and has done it for the future,” Bartlett Diaz said.

A dark horse, Mexico City Mayor Ramon Aguirre, kicked off the parade of candidates last Monday. Analysts here give Aguirre, 51, virtually no chance of obtaining the nomination. He also mentioned inflation as a major problem facing the country.

Still to appear on television are Atty. Gen. Sergio Garcia Ramirez, Secretary of Education Miguel Gonzalez Avelar, and Carlos Salinas de Gotari, the planning and budget secretary.

The political stock of Garcia Ramirez, 49, has risen in recent weeks because, perhaps among all of the candidates, he is considered to have attracted the least number of vengeful enemies during a long government career. As for Gonzalez Avelar, 50, the only political analysis known to give him a good chance was based on a study of biorhythms.

Salinas de Gotari, 39, one of the early favorites, has reportedly faced some opposition from labor leaders because he has promoted harsh austerity measures in the face of Mexico’s economic problems.

Drive for Democratization

A government source close to De la Madrid said the decision to name the candidates and put them on television forms part of a continuing drive to democratize the ruling party as well as national politics. He listed as part of the drive a decision by De la Madrid to increase representation of opposition parties in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies, although even under the new plan, the PRI is all but guaranteed a working majority.

The PRI also controls all 64 seats in the Senate as well as all state governorships and most city and town halls.

Outside observers contend that various pressures forced De la Madrid to take at least a token step to open up the presidential selection process.

“They had no choice,” said economist Castaneda. “The criticism was endless.”

Inside the PRI, a group of left-leaning politicians has lobbied for almost a year in favor of an open primary and convention system to select the presidential candidate. The group, known as the Democratic Current, also proposed its own candidate for president. The dissident candidate, Cuahthemoc Cardenas, is the former PRI governor of Michoacan state and son of the late Lazaro Cardenas, who as president of Mexico nationalized the oil industry in 1938.

Open Display of Dissent

PRI leaders, irritated by such an open display of dissent, have told Cardenas and his followers that they may not hold rallies or meetings under the party’s red, white and green banner. That has not,

however, quieted the Democratic Current.

“We’re going to fight to the finish to bring real democracy to the party,” said Porfirio Munoz Ledo, a prime mover in the Democratic Current.

Munoz said that the display of PRI candidates on television is no more than a cosmetic gesture.

“It’s like the Miss Mexico contest. Lots of flash but no substance,” he said.

The problem for the Democratic Current now appears to be whether to abandon the ruling party or claim a modest victory and fall quietly into line. Munoz said his group would make a decision within the coming weeks.

Opposition Party

Democratization has also been the banner of the conservative National Action Party, which in recent years emerged as the principal electoral rival of the PRI in several Mexican states. The PAN, as the party is called, is strongest in Mexico’s northern states and is expected to chose a presidential candidate in an open convention in November.

“The nation is demanding true democracy,” said Jesus Gonzalez Schmal, a congressional deputy and the only announced PAN candidate. “The PRI has given a very limited response.”

Leftist parties are also trying to show an open face to voters. Five of them have formed a single coalition called the Mexican Socialist Party, and four candidates are publicly vying for its nomination.

Candidates for both the PAN and the Socialist Party are actively seeking support among party militants, and unlike the PRI candidates, openly invite questioning from leaders and grass-roots members alike.

The PRI, apparently, is not ready for such a bold step.

“They are, after all, in power. They have everything to lose,” said Colegio de Mexico’s Meyer. “The others can be as democratic as they want. They aren’t going to win the election.”