Wilson Appears to Be Drawing Swing Votes His Way, Polls Show

Based on the results of two new polls commissioned by Republican Sen. Pete Wilson, officials of his campaign are expressing fresh confidence that Wilson is on target in his pursuit of swing voters--independents and conservative Democrats, whose votes are crucial in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans.

The polls show that Wilson continues to do much better here than Republican presidential candidate George Bush who, unlike Wilson, does not appear to be winning many converts outside the Republican Party.

Common Vulnerability

However, one of the polls suggests that Wilson and Bush may share a common vulnerability--the desire of a number of people for change after eight years of Republican rule in Washington. On the issue of electability, 39% of the voters polled said Wilson deserves to be reelected while 32% said it is time for a change and 29% had no opinion.

“It’s not everything you’d want. It’s not a great reelect score,” said pollster Dick Dresner, a consultant to the Wilson campaign who surveyed voters on the electability issue.

Los Angeles Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis said that Wilson’s electability score may point to a difficult problem for the senator. “If people really want change, it is not something Wilson may have a lot of control over.”

Kam Kuwata, a senior aide to Wilson’s opponent, Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy, argued that the poll did not bode well for Wilson.

“It says that 61% of the people of California are not willing to say Pete Wilson deserves a second term. After spending $6 million to $7 million on his campaign, it’s a very dangerous position for an incumbent senator to be in.”

But Dresner pointed out that McCarthy fared worse in the poll on the same issue of electability. Asked if McCarthy would make a good senator, 28% of the people responding said he would and 40% said he would not.

Asked Voters to Choose

Moreover, when Dresner’s poll asked voters to choose between Wilson and McCarthy, Wilson prevailed by a 21-point margin, 50% to 29%. Independent polls conducted over the last two months have given Wilson the edge by margins of 12 to 20 points.

The results of his own polling also favored Wilson when voters were asked to rate job performances by him and McCarthy. On this question, Dresner singled out the responses of swing voters--Democrats and Republicans who often vote for the other party’s candidates. Once again, the results favored Wilson, with the senator doing better than his opponent among swing voters in both parties.

But the polls conducted by Wilson were not without some good news for McCarthy. They showed the lieutenant governor leading among Latinos and Jews, two groups that Wilson has been busily courting. According to Dresner’s poll, voters also consider McCarthy to be a stronger environmentalist than Wilson.

1,000 Interviewed

Dresner said he interviewed 1,000 registered voters, 47% of them Democrats, 38% Republicans and 12% independents. He said there is a 3% margin of error in his findings. Another 800 people were polled by Charlton Research Co. of San Francisco, a spokesman for the firm said Wednesday. Both polls were conducted during the last week of June.

Dresner attested to the authenticity of the poll figures after they were obtained this week by The Times from sources who asked not to be named.

The polls are the latest in a series of voter opinion surveys that the Wilson campaign began taking a year ago to measure the effectiveness of Wilson’s reelection strategy--one aimed at immunizing him against the charge that he is the rich man’s candidate who has not shown much leadership on behalf of the average Californian.

Worry About Comparisons

More recently, members of the Wilson campaign have begun to worry about comparisons with Vice President Bush, who has not been doing well in the polls in California. McCarthy has been eager to liken Wilson to Bush, referring to the two Yale-educated Republicans as “George Wilson” and “Pete Bush.”

But Wilson’s polls indicate that, so far, California voters have a far more positive view of Wilson than they do of Bush.

For example, one poll asked voters to rate the performances of Wilson, Bush and McCarthy, along with likely Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis. Wilson received favorable reviews from 77% of the voters; Dukakis from 68%; McCarthy from 60%, and Bush from 55%.

Unfavorable Rating

Wilson received an unfavorable rating from 13% of the voters, Dukakis from 21%. McCarthy fared poorly with 23% and Bush with nearly 38%.