Pressure Grows on Arafat to Rein In the Extremists

NAHARIYA, Israel — As suicide bombers once again have taken the offensive against Israel and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded Thursday with threats and a familiar demand:

Israel would take “a different path” from the peace process if the Palestinian Authority president does not crack down on “the terrorist infrastructure” of the extremist Islamic groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Netanyahu made the same demand after twin suicide bombings in Jerusalem’s Mahane Yehuda market July 30. At that time, Israeli security forces put together a list of hundreds of alleged militants whom they want the Palestinian Authority to arrest.

Arafat did not act then; rather, he held a public meeting with political leaders of Hamas, embracing one of them. He believed that he needed to co-opt the Palestinian political opposition rather than be Israel’s police dog.

The question now is whether he will act differently this time.

There is a precedent. After suicide bombings last year, Arafat responded to Israeli and U.S. pressure by arresting hundreds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists. The Palestinian people largely supported him then because they felt the Islamic extremists were threatening a peace process that had been moving forward under Israel’s Labor Party government.

At a U.S.-sponsored summit in Egypt in March 1996, the Arab world also responded with a show of unity for Arafat and Israel’s then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres. But two months later, Netanyahu defeated Peres in elections based on the issue of security. Since then, the peace process has come to a halt over the Netanyahu administration’s expansion of settlements and the Palestinians’ subsequent refusal to cooperate on security issues. Arafat released many of the militants he had detained and stopped sharing military intelligence.

After the July 30 market bombings, Arafat was reluctant to round up the Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants again, apparently fearing a political backlash among Palestinians who saw little hope for the peace process under Netanyahu.

But now, some political analysts say, he has no choice but to crack down if he wants to save the peace process that brought him back from exile in 1994.

“Arafat will probably move against Hamas more forcefully than he did in the past,” said Khalil Shikaki, director of the Center for Palestine Research and Studies in Nablus. “He has an interest in moving against them because this attack definitely represents a threat to him. It weakens him in relation to Israel, regionally and internationally.”

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who decided Thursday not to let the bombings divert her from a visit next week to jump-start the peace process, will add to the pressure on Arafat. Last month, she blamed both sides for bogging down the peace process. After Thursday’s bombings, she is unlikely to press Netanyahu but will lean even harder on Arafat.

By Thursday night, Palestinian security forces had detained two Hamas leaders from the West Bank towns of Nablus and Ramallah for questioning and intimated that they would be arresting others. But such a limited action does not necessarily foretell a decision to meet the Israeli demands.

If Arafat does not satisfy the Israelis, the risk is that Netanyahu will take matters into his own hands--for example, sending security agents back into Palestinian-governed areas to capture Hamas militants. This would probably force Arafat to respond militarily, resulting in an armed confrontation between the two sides that the Palestinians cannot win. A return to armed struggle would bring an end to Arafat’s Palestinian Authority.

With the foes of the Israeli-Palestinian peace accords showing again that they can strike at will, Thursday’s bombings strengthened the voices in Israel who might be willing to gamble on such a scenario.

Netanyahu’s tough language suggests that he might be open to a hard-line option.

“The Oslo agreement was built on a simple deal. . . . We gave them territory, they promised to fight the terrorist organization in their territory. For four years, they have failed miserably. Some say Arafat cannot, some say that he will not. Whether it is this or that, the meaning is that the primary basis of the deal doesn’t exist,” Netanyahu said.