Study Sees Safe Flights at an El Toro Airport

SANTA ANA — A preliminary study to be released by the county today says that commercial air traffic can safely fly in and out of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station under proposed runway configurations and without compromising operations at nearby John Wayne Airport.

The findings, which airport opponents immediately disputed, were based on detailed computer models developed by SABRE Technology Solutions, one of several consultants helping county planners in their efforts to convert the base into an international airport.

It marks the first data from the county’s master El Toro plan to be publicly released and cuts to the heart of some of the top concerns raised by airport opponents.

When the Board of Supervisors gave preliminary approval for the El Toro airport plan in 1996, it insisted that its staff craft a final aviation plan that keeps John Wayne Airport operating in concert with a new airport.

The board also approved a runway configuration for El Toro that would have 70% of all flights take off on an east-west runway that some opponents and airline pilots consider potentially dangerous.

The consultants developed complex simulations that took into account projected air traffic, regional airspace capacity, flight patterns, federal regulations and other factors.

The firm used the same type of airplane simulation model used by the Federal Aviation Administration, as well as dozens of international airports around the globe, county officials said.

“This shows that two airports can operate safely and that the runway configuration we have makes sense,” said Supervisor Charles V. Smith, an airport backer. “People have raised the issue of safety. I think this answers the question.”

But airport opponents questioned the validity of the study and suggested that it was based on faulty assumptions and data.

Bert Hack, a member of the anti-airport group Taxpayers for Responsible Planning, predicted that the county will eventually move away from the east-west runway configuration because of safety concerns, making the modeling worthless.

“Simulations rarely reflect the reality of the situation,” said Hack. “Any simulation is only as valid as the data you put in it. . . . So it has very little credibility to us.”

Representatives from SABRE Technology Solutions will present their preliminary findings to the Board of Supervisors this morning. Later this year, the Fort Worth-based firm will prepare new air traffic simulations for the four proposed airport plans being developed by the county.

SABRE used a simulation system known as SIMMOD, an FAA-validated program that simulates aircraft movement in in the sky and on the ground, according to a county report. SIMMOD has been used in development of other two-airport areas, including Dallas-Fort Worth and Paris.

The firm spent months gathering information for the model from a variety of sources, including the FAA’s regional air traffic control monitors and John Wayne Airport’s control tower, according to the report.

“The modeling shows that the runway configurations approved by the Board of Supervisors . . . can safely accommodate substantial service at El Toro,” the report stated.

John Wayne Airport is about seven miles southwest of El Toro, which is scheduled to close in 1999 when the Marine Corps pulls out.

Smith said the study reinforced his belief that both airports can successfully operate in concert.

“You essentially had two airports operating with the Marines over the years, especially during Operation Desert Storm and the heavy military flights you had,” he said.

But airport opponents said the study does little to alleviate their concerns.

They point out that two major airline pilots’ unions have expressed doubts about the east-west runway for El Toro, saying the planes would head toward a rising elevation that could present safety risks.

Hack and others predict that the county will eventually move to a north-south configuration that would send air traffic into the Central County, where support for the airport plan is strongest. The county denies any such intentions.

Opponents on Friday filed a lawsuit against the county seeking the public release of two studies looking at runway configurations and other safety issues. The county has turned down their requests for the information.