Negotiators, Not Pitchers, Might Deny McGwire

ST. LOUIS — One more strike and Mark McGwire will be out.

That is what the St. Louis Cardinal slugger suggested privately to this reporter on the night before he hit his 500th and 501st home runs to become the 16th player to reach that milestone and inspire conjecture on the possibility of catching home run king Hank Aaron at 755--legitimate thinking given his remarkable pace of recent years.

McGwire said at a news conference after his two homers on Thursday night that 755 was too distant to contemplate, that a younger Ken Griffey Jr. was the most realistic challenger to Aaron, but that he hoped to play for as long as his back and overall health permitted.

“Forty sounds good,” he would say of a possible retirement age during our private talk--but the health of the industry may prove to be a larger roadblock in the pursuit of Aaron than his personal health.

“Right now I’m only looking to play this contract out,” McGwire confided. “If there’s another strike or work stoppage, I’d be too embarrassed to continue as a player. I feel good about what Sammy [Sosa] and I have done to help restore the game’s popularity [following the 1994 strike that forced cancellation of the World Series], but another strike would damage the game beyond repair. It would never be back on top again, and I wouldn’t want to be part of that.”

McGwire’s contract with the Cardinals technically expires at the end of the 2000 season, as does the bargaining agreement between baseball and the players union. However, the union has an option to pick up the agreement through 2001, which it is expected to do, and both McGwire and the Cardinals have an option to extend his contract through 2001, which seems to be a certainty.

Thus, McGwire, who is being paid a stunningly modest $8.5 million this year and will make $9 million next year and $11 million in his option year, will be watching closely after the 2001 season as the union tries to negotiate a new bargaining contract and avoid another work stoppage of the type that would force McGwire into premature retirement, if he holds to his current thinking.

Given the economic cost of the last dispute and the accelerating rate of recovery, it is inconceivable that the players and owners would permit another stoppage, but they have been slow to learn from history, and many in management continue to view a salary cap as the primary remedy for the financial problems--a prescription the union will never swallow.

McGwire, meanwhile, believes that “like good wine, I’m getting better with age. I’m so strong mentally now that I’m able to compensate for the things I did in my earlier years on physical ability alone. I’m totally focused in the batter’s box.”

He has hit 114 homers the last two years and averaged 54 a year starting in 1995, when he came back from the heel and back injuries that virtually erased the 1993 and ’94 seasons and probably cost him a minimum of 80 homers--the difference between having Aaron within easy view of his contact lenses and requiring binoculars. Nevertheless, 755 is far from impossible.

McGwire, modestly speaking, should end this season with at least 515 homers--and possibly 525. At 515, and playing four more years, he would need to average 60 a year to catch Aaron. If he plays five more years, he would need to average 48 a year, less than his post-’95 pace.

McGwire turns 36 on Oct. 1. Aaron played until he was 42 and hit 201 homers after turning 36, but he had a considerable falloff in his last three seasons. He hit 20 homers at 40, the year he passed Babe Ruth’s record of 714, and totaled 22 in his final two seasons.

“I don’t want to be told to retire,” McGwire said. “I want to be able to walk away on my own terms, still capable of performing at a high level.”

Cardinal Manager Tony La Russa believes McGwire’s work ethic is so ingrained that that he will “continue to pay the price physically” and that it will ultimately come down to “how long he is challenged to compete.”

La Russa added: “With a talent like his, I’m never surprised by what he does. I’m impressed, but never surprised. I also think that the best thing that can happen here--that both he and we expect to happen--is for the club to keep getting better and that Mark will feed off that. He’ll be more motivated to keep playing and have more fun playing.”

The Cardinals have been wracked by pitching injuries the last two years and erased from the race early. McGwire has been the show, overshadowing standout performances by Brian Jordan last year, Fernando Tatis this year and Ray Lankford in each of the last two years. Jordan, who went to Atlanta as a free agent, said everything the Cardinals do is built around McGwire. Lankford complained that with his speed he is better suited to hit third than fourth, but they bat the other way because of McGwire’s desire to hit third.

It can be a fragile situation for La Russa, who said, “I think it would be different if the team was distinguishing itself, but some of the guys do suffer from a loss of individual credit because of the attention Mark gets. Some guys are envious by nature, but most understand what it’s all about and put it in perspective. I mean, Michael Jordan got more attention than anyone and the Bulls put six rings on their fingers, so what I tell the club is that it’s a privilege and plus to have him. For one thing, he’s driving in more than a hundred runs every year and scoring a whole lot of runs, so for anybody to say he takes away from what we’re doing is ridiculous.

“The other thing is, do you know what it’s like to play in this ballpark with 40,000 people creating that adrenaline level every night? Our team should never have a flat day, and the credit for that goes to Mark.”

McGwire, of course, is sensitive to the situation, frequently reminding reporters to talk to his teammates. He would love to play on a winner, as every player would.

“It’s not fun losing,” he said, “but I would never characterize the opportunity to play baseball as not fun. We’re blessed to be able to put on a major league uniform and play a game kids all over America dream about playing.”

A labor of love that will only stop being that if labor intrudes again.