Variables All Add Up to Good News for Democrat

A forecast of economic variables adds up to a Democrat remaining in the White House after next year’s election, according to Chapman University forecasters.

An equation that uses changes in real gross domestic product and the consumer price index correctly predicted the winning candidate in 19 of the last 25 presidential elections, said James L. Doti, Chapman University president and holder of the Donald Bren Distinguished Chair in Business and Economics. Chapman, which has been issuing these economic forecasts since 1977, applied the economic model to most presidential elections retroactively.

A combination of robust economic growth and low inflation the past two years strongly favors Democratic candidates Al Gore and Bill Bradley, Doti said.

The last time the model proved wrong was in 1976, when former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, upended then-president Gerald Ford, a Republican.

Doti said he does not take into account noneconomic factors, such as the effect the various scandals plaguing the White House have had on voters, or who might be the vice presidential running mate.

The largely Republican audience of business men and women fell momentarily silent upon hearing the prediction, before a lone attendee burst into applause. It was Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez of Santa Ana.