The Suspense Is Amplified

With nominations due to be announced Tuesday, the Grammy Awards could be sailing toward another credibility crisis--this time an iceberg in the form of music from “Titanic.”

Ever since the record industry awards program was started 41 years ago, Grammy voters have been accused of favoring mainstream bestsellers, and the “Titanic” soundtrack album was almost as big a phenomenon in record stores as the Oscar-winning film was in theaters.

The collection, which consists of James Horner’s score and Celine Dion’s recording of “My Heart Will Go On,” has sold more than 9.3 million copies, nearly double 1998’s sales runner-up--Dion’s “Let’s Talk About Love,” which also contained “My Heart Will Go On.”

A worst-case scenario, in terms of Grammy credibility, would be for both of these undistinguished works to be nominated in the best album category.

It would have been a distinct possibility in past years. But the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences, which sponsors the annual competition, revamped the nominating process in 1996 to give adventurous artists a better chance against mainstream hit makers.

Under the old system, the academy’s nearly 10,000 voting members determined the five nominees in such key categories as best album and best record. Now, the 20 works getting the most votes in select categories are presented to a secret blue-ribbon committee, which then selects the final five nominees.

This committee no doubt was responsible the last two years for nominations going to such critical favorites as Beck’s “Odelay,” Radiohead’s “OK Computer” and possibly even Bob Dylan’s “Time Out of Mind.”

One crucial advantage that the committee has over the full membership is that committee members actually listen to the 20 albums. With more than 700 eligible recordings in the album category alone, few of the 10,000 listened to more than a fraction of them.

While this committee system has been good for the credibility of the Grammys, it has made the business of forecasting nominees more complex.

The nomination committee aims for balance as much as sheer quality, much like a political convention selecting a presidential ticket. Thus, you’ll find limp mainstream bestsellers alongside the year’s more challenging and deserving works.

One holdover from the old system: a tendency to stick with past winners, hence making every record with the names Quincy Jones, Babyface, Eric Clapton and Aretha Franklin a threat to win.

The awards will be presented during ceremonies Feb. 24 at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles. The eligibility period for this year’s awards ran from Oct. 1, 1997 to Sept. 30, 1998.

Best Album

(726 eligible recordings)

Even under the new rules, you have to start handicapping the race by looking at the mainstream bestsellers--and that leads you straight into the “Titanic” issue, because the soundtrack and Dion’s album are ranked first and second on the Billboard list of 1998’s bestsellers.

While both might have been nominated under the old system, the committee knows better than to nominate more than one--and Dion is the likely choice: Soundtracks rarely get chosen, and the committee must have thought about all the groans that would have greeted a “Titanic” nomination.

Garth Brooks’ “Sevens” ranks third on the Billboard sales list, but Grammy voters have not been enchanted with Brooks despite album sales approaching the 100-million mark. Besides, Grammy voters rarely give a best album or best record nomination to country artists.

But look for a country breakthrough with Shania Twain’s “Come On Over,” the fifth-most successful album on Billboard’s list. The slick country-pop package has sold more than 6 million copies, and Twain, despite her blandness, has picked up a lot of media credibility, with a cover of Rolling Stone magazine and a loving documentary on TV’s VH1.

Other possible challengers from the Billboard Top 20 list include Will Smith (he’s as likable on record as he is in films, and he’s a past Grammy winner), Savage Garden (pretty anonymous, but the album has sold more than 3 million copies), Usher (lots of radio exposure), Madonna (not a Grammy favorite, but “Ray of Light” got her her best reviews ever) and Barbra Streisand (she’s won eight Grammys, so she’s always dangerous).

Sheryl Crow and Aretha Franklin have to be given a chance on the past-winners theory. Their albums, “The Globe Sessions” and “A Rose Is Still a Rose,” respectively, weren’t huge bestsellers, but were well received by critics. Franklin, who has 15 career Grammys, is also on Grammy voters’ minds because of her show-stopping performance on last year’s Grammy telecast.

Lastly, there’s the critical factor. Here’s where Lauryn Hill’s “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill” should benefit. The album has emerged as the consensus favorite among critics as album of the year, and Hill is also a member of the highly regarded (and Grammy-winning) Fugees hip-hop trio.

Another album that enjoyed strong critical support during 1998 was Beastie Boys’ best-selling “Hello Nasty,” which also carries the advantage for the committee of providing a way to acknowledge the rock and hip-hop worlds with a single nomination. Lucinda Williams is the longshot bet.

The Dave Matthews Band’s “Before These Crowded Streets” can’t be overlooked, because it has sold 2 million copies and appeals to mainstream and contemporary wings in the Grammy membership.

Ultimately, Dion, Twain and Hill are the most likely nominees--with Beastie Boys and the rest battling for the wild-card spots.

Best Record (358 eligible)

Looking at the Billboard Hot 100 singles list, we run into many of the same faces that surface in the album race, including Dion (“My Heart Will Go On”) and Twain (“You’re Still the One”).

Their biggest hurdle may be that they both have more than one single on the eligibility list, which means their respective entries could cancel each other out. Besides “My Heart Will Go On,” Dion is eligible in this category for “To Love You More,” “I’m Your Angel” (a duet with R. Kelly) and “I Hate You Then I Love You” (a duet with Luciano Pavarotti). Twain is also eligible with “From This Moment On.”

Next’s “Too Close” tops the Billboard list, but it was a fairly anonymous record, so the group doesn’t seem a serious contender. That’s not the case with Brandy & Monica’s “The Boy Is Mine,” which is No. 2 on the list and was a very high-profile record. Savage Garden’s “Truly Madly Deeply” also looms as a candidate, based on its Top 5 placement on the chart. Natalie Imbruglia’s “Torn” was such a huge radio hit that it is a major contender.

Aerosmith’s “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” is positioned nicely because it draws on the rock and mainstream pop traditions (the song was written by Diane Warren).

Franklin’s “A Rose Is Still a Rose,” a classy single written and produced by Hill, may have lots of support if it makes it past Round 1 of the voting process. The problem is the single didn’t sell enough to make it into the year-end Top 75.

Of other past winners on the eligibility list, only Paula Cole, with “I Don’t Want to Wait,” and Smith, with “Gettin’ Jiggy Wit It,” made it into the Billboard Top 15.

Alanis Morissette is a strong contender on the past-Grammy-winner theory and the critical-favorite theory, thanks to “Uninvited,” a much-admired tune on the “City of Angels” soundtrack.

Other records that received much critical support during the year are Hill’s “Doo Wop (That Thing),” Wyclef Jean’s “Gone Till November”) and the Verve’s striking “Bitter Sweet Symphony,” which had the added exposure of being highlighted in a Nike ad.

The favorites are Aerosmith, Dion and Twain again, which means you’re going to have to root for Hill, Franklin, Morissette, Jean and the Verve if the nomination list is going to have any credibility.

New Artist (520 eligible)

On a purely artistic level, four of the choices are easy: Hill, Elliott Smith, Rufus Wainwright and Williams. But there’s far too little sales power in that list (with only Hill going platinum) for many of them to land nominations. That means judges, to achieve that desired balance, will turn to a diverse list of bestsellers.

The judges will be tempted by red-hot teen favorites (the Backstreet Boys and ‘N Sync), a high-profile pop success story (Imbruglia) and the “Ally McBeal” lure (Vonda Shepard). Hopefully, they’ll skip all four and supplement their artistry list (Hill being the only certainty) by turning to bestsellers in country (the Dixie Chicks), rap (DMX and Jay-Z) and rock (Ben Folds Five).*

Robert Hilburn, The Times’ pop music critic, can be reached by e-mail at [email protected]