La Nina Casting a Dry Spell Over the County

The weather phenomenon known as La Nina is delivering Ventura County its driest winter since the drought at the beginning of the decade, leaving farmers to pump up the irrigation and firefighters to nervously eye drying hillsides.

“We’re probably not as dry as ‘89-90, when January and February were totally dry until that quite wet ‘miracle March’ came along and brought rainfall back up to normal,” said Todd Morris, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “But right now we are drier than ‘93-94.”

In what is typically one of the wettest times of year, county rain totals are hovering at a parched 18% to 39% of normal. The last good spritzing came a month ago, said Dolores Taylor, senior hydrologist with the Ventura County Flood Control District.

Usually by this time of year, downtown Ventura has received 5.11 inches of rain, she said. This year, the total is 1.35. The lack of liquid is even more pronounced at the Matilija Dam, which has received 1.72 inches of rain instead of the expected 9.43.

“We sure are in a rut--at about 30% of normal,” Taylor said. “I keep thinking, holy cripes, every day in January that goes by we fall further behind.”

Semiarid conditions notwithstanding, no one is predicting a drought yet.

“We’ve got a long way to go,” Morris said. “Typically your wettest months are late January, early February and the first week or two of March. We could indeed recover from our deficit--to close to normal. It’s much too early in the game to talk about drought.”

This month is shaping up much drier than last year, when the first of a series of El Nino storms drenched the county. After a midmonth storm last January, parts of Ventura had received 11.15 inches of rain--far above normal. The same location received 3.17 inches by Jan. 13, 1997. And in the sopping storms of the 1994-95 winter, the Government Center was socked with 14.18 inches of rain by Jan. 10.

The desiccated conditions won’t break any records, however. Since the county began tracking rainfall in 1868, there have been two winters with nary a drop of rain, 1903-04 and 1929-30, according to hydrologist Taylor’s records.

Meteorologists say Ventura County residents will be stuck with the monotony of mild, dry weather for at least the next six to 10 days.

“Rain is definitely below normal so far,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Dennis Tussey. “As advertised, last year was an El Nino year and this is a La Nina year. That means we’ve been under a ridge of high pressure for weeks now, and most of the storms that do hit come from the northwest and head toward the southeast, bypassing us altogether. The forecast was warmer and drier for this winter. And so far that’s held true.”

The dry spell means farmers must irrigate their crops more, but there is no shortage of water because reservoirs and aquifers are still flush from last year’s downpours.

“Because of the wonderful water year we had last year, in Lake Piru we still have 60,000 acre-feet,” enough to serve 120,000 families for a year, said Dana L. Wisehart, deputy general manager of United Water Conservation District. “So we can afford to have a dry year this year and even one next year. Then we can start talking about the drought.”

United, which monitors underground water basins in western Ventura County, has diverted some 145,811 acre-feet of water from Lake Piru to replenish underground aquifers used by farmers.

Rancher Richard W. Pidduck, who has 140 acres of lemons and avocados in Santa Paula and Oxnard, is among those who have increased irrigation.

“I don’t think we expect the dryness to affect yields, but it will have a great effect on our costs of production,” said Pidduck, president of the Ventura County Farm Bureau. “Water is expensive for most farmers, and this will cut into our profit margins. So pray for rain.”

Meanwhile, fire officials are preparing for the possibility of blazes or floods in the coming months.

Floods could occur if the dry earth is unable to suck up heavy rainfall that may eventually come. But fast-burning fires are more likely, because El Nino’s rains caused brush to flourish and La Nina is drying the grasses out, said County Fire Department spokeswoman Sandi Wells.

“We wouldn’t want people to feel that just because it’s January and a little cooler that we can’t have some significant brush fires,” Wells said. “We have a lot of grass that’s very dry. That’s the light, or flashy, fuel that is the wick to the bigger fuel. The bigger brushes are very dry because they haven’t had a chance to green up like in most years.

“If we continue this dry pattern, we could have a very significant fire season that could start as soon as March or April,” instead of the usual May 15 beginning of the fire season, she said.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

County Rainfall

Here are rainfall figures from the Ventura County Flood Control Department since Oct. 1, the beginning of the official rain year.

*--*

Rainfall Normal rainfall Location since Oct. 1 to date Camarillo 1.32 4.71 Casitas Dam 2.08 8.05 Casitas Rec. Center 2.07 8.07 Fillmore 1.48 7.05 Matilija Dam 1.72 9.43 Moorpark 1.29 5.16 Ojai 1.67 7.14 Upper Ojai 2.51 7.18 Oxnard 1.51 5.46 Piru 2.06 6.09 Port Hueneme 1.80 5.05 Santa Paula 1.49 6.86 Simi Valley 2.06 5.26 Thousand Oaks 1.55 5.79 Ventura Govt. Center 1.72 5.49

*--*