County Business Forecast Rosy, Survey Says

As good as last year was for county businesses, sales and profits should be even higher this year, according to an economic survey released Wednesday.

Real estate and construction companies led the list in sales and profits for 1998, with retail and manufacturing companies not far behind.

And business leaders from throughout Ventura County expressed optimism about the year ahead. Almost half--or 46%--of the responding companies expect to increase their staff in 1999, and about 30% expect to expand inventory and office space. As in 1998, larger firms--those with sales above $5 million--plan to be more aggressive in hiring than smaller firms.

City National Bank, which conducted the annual Economic Survey and Forecast, sent 20,000 questionnaires to companies spanning a spectrum of industries, including agriculture, construction, retail, real estate, manufacturing and professional services. Because only 621 companies responded, the survey is more of a tally of local business sentiment than a scientific poll.

But bank officials said the survey is accurate to within three or four percentage points and measures the real-world experience of the county’s business owners.

“The results continue to show that Ventura County is a dynamic place to own a business,” said Bob Patterson, City National Bank senior vice president. “It’s always nice to be a bearer of good news.”

Real estate and construction companies had the best news, leading the way in sales. Three-fourths of the responding real estate firms reported higher revenues, and 74% of construction firms said sales improved.

At the bottom of the list, only 53% of agricultural companies said they had better sales, down from 65% in 1997.

Donna Moore, who works in business development for the McFerrin Group, a real estate company, said she wasn’t surprised by the survey’s results. She said she gets 20 to 30 calls a day from people looking to relocate to the area.

“The problem is there are too many people wanting to move to Ventura County and not enough property,” Moore said. “We’re doing great. We just wish we had more property.”

In overall sales gains, larger companies had a better year than smaller companies, with 84% of those with sales of $5 million to $10 million reporting higher sales, up from 69% one year ago.

Only 50% of firms with sales of $250,000 to $500,000 had higher revenues, compared with 53% in 1997.

Out of the six cities represented in the survey, Camarillo led the way in hiring and sales. Other cities included Ventura, Oxnard, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks and Westlake.

Nearly 50% of the businesses in Camarillo expanded their staff last year, compared with 33% in Oxnard and 39% in Thousand Oaks.

And 78% of Camarillo companies reported higher sales in 1998, compared with 64% in Oxnard and 53% in Thousand Oaks.

When asked about their concerns, company officials around the county said they were worried about growth restrictions and a shortage of affordable housing. Several businesses also expressed concerns over financing. And smaller retail stores said they feared competition from national chain stores.

“The balance of power is shifting to the chains in a huge way,” said Jim Salzer, who owns a video store and a record shop in Ventura. “The independents are going through a lot of hurt, and it has a lot to do with the studios going directly to the major chains.”

Salzer said his video sales have dropped about 17% in the last year.

Businesses in every industry projected increases in profits for 1999. James W. McCaslin, president of MacValley Oil Co. in Oxnard, said he had a good year in 1998 and plans to hire more workers in anticipation of another profitable year. He attributes higher sales to the influx of residents from Los Angeles.

“It looks relatively rosy,” McCaslin said. “People are getting awfully tired of Los Angeles and are looking at Ventura County as a good place to live. So the construction business is way up again, and that’s a good sign.”

The survey results differ from those of some economic analysts, who have predicted that the county’s recent economic growth will slow down late this year because of weak foreign markets and uncertain politics in Sacramento.

But Jeff Paul, senior vice president of the Oxnard-based City National Bank, said a survey of real-world business owners is often more accurate than an analysis of statistics.

“We’re asking one business owner to look at his business and say what he thinks is going to happen,” Paul said. “And when you add up those responses, it becomes meaningful.”

“But the bottom line is that nobody knows what’s gonna happen. So this is somebody’s best guess.”

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Survey Analysis

City National Bank analyzed surveys from 621 local businesses on their performance in 1998 and projections for 1999. Responses include:

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1998 results 1999 projections Increase Decrease Increase Decrease Sales 64% 16% 67% 6% Profits as percentage 52% 21% 56% 9% of sales Employment 39% 12% 46% 4% Space requirements 30% 5% 28% 3%

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