Study Raises Debate Over Airport Plans

The number of passengers using Southern California airports is expected to double by 2020, but if more airports are not built or existing facilities expanded, how will the estimated 158 million customers that year be served?

The question is at the heart of a pending study by the Southern California Assn. of Governments, and the agency’s answers could prove useful for those who oppose the massive Los Angeles International Airport expansion and construction of an airport at the former El Toro Marine Corps Air Station in Orange County.

Opponents of the two projects hope the association’s study will show that other airports can assume much of the projected demand in 21 years.

The agency, governed by 75 elected officials from Southern California cities and counties, will release an update on its airport projections when its aviation task force meets Thursday in Los Angeles. The task force will recommend whether the new information should be adopted as part of the regional transportation plan.

The association’s current projection of passenger demand is based on more than a dozen factors, including variables such as air fares, frequency of flights and travel time to airports.

The brunt of the future load would be borne by LAX, the planned El Toro airfield and Ontario International Airport, the agency says. The association predicts that 22 million passengers would be using El Toro in 2020--triple the current load of John Wayne Airport. LAX would grow from about 60 million passengers a year today to 94 million, and Ontario would serve 16 million.

That’s assuming, of course, that Southern California’s 12 airports will be expanded and El Toro will be built to accommodate the burgeoning passenger load.

The association has not worried before whether facilities would be built to handle all of its transportation predictions. But now, with communities opposed to bigger airports, the agency is acknowledging that airports might not grow with demand.

The association has developed five scenarios to use as it determines how many passengers can be served in 2020. Under all five scenarios, LAX would be capped at no more than 70 million passengers a year. Two alternatives look at what would happen if the El Toro airport is not built. One would cap John Wayne Airport at 15 million passengers, more than twice what it now serves, and the rest would allow an unlimited number of passengers there.

Under three alternatives, a high-speed rail line--at an estimated cost of $6 billion--would take passengers from Irvine to Ontario International or March Air Force Base near Riverside.