Peace for the Long Term

The many who were skeptical of U.N-sponsored talks between Afghan factions reasonably had low expectations, since feuding among brutal, corrupt warlords is what nearly destroyed Afghanistan in the 1990s. But what they didn’t take into account was the sheer exhaustion of combatants and civilians alike. Combined with sufficient pressure from the United States and other countries, that war-weariness may lead to agreement on a peacekeeping force and a transitional government for Afghanistan during current talks at a German resort.

As was the case in Germany after World War II, Afghanistan is recovering from a murderous regime and has a chance to rebuild the nation with other nations’ money. Before the Afghans can do that, anti-Taliban groups have to agree on an effective peacekeeping force, whether an Afghan or multinational one or both.

An interim government--one that genuinely includes the Pushtuns in the south, old-line royalists and the other ethnic groups that form the Northern Alliance--has a chance of lasting the few months until a loya jirga , a traditional assembly of tribal leaders, can meet to decide on a longer-term transition. Under the plan being discussed, the 87-year-old exiled king, Mohammad Zaher Shah, would serve as a unifying figurehead until a constitution could be written and elections could be held, in about two years.

Already the western city of Herat has held its first election since 1973--albeit with a male-only vote. It resulted in the mayoral victory of a former Taliban member who now says Afghanistan needs “the help of the international community.”

The sticking point in the talks in Germany will be the current military dominance of the Northern Alliance, a loose collection of anti-Taliban warlords. That dominance is the primary reason why a multinational peacekeeping force may be the best solution. Only an outside force would be truly neutral, though it might also become a magnet for hostility. The Northern Alliance opposes one; all the other parties to the conference support the idea. Turkey, Indonesia and New Zealand, among others, have said they are ready to send peacekeeping troops for a primarily Muslim force.

After 1989, when the Soviet Union’s troops left Afghanistan, the United States abandoned the country and years of civil warfare erupted, eventually ushering in the draconian Taliban. This time, Western nations are rightly holding out the carrot of billions of dollars in reconstruction assistance in return for an inclusive government and civil rights for Afghan women. The U.S. has already won strategic victories in Afghanistan, but Washington must help ensure the country’s future as well so that it will not become a base for terrorism again. That means sticking with the commitment well after Osama Bin Laden is gone.