The Triumph of Extremes

Last month’s primaries eroded California’s legislative center, but the governor we elect in November will likely pay the price.

Should GOP challenger Bill Simon pull another stunning upset and defeat Gov. Gray Davis, he will face a conservative Republican governor’s worst nightmare: a Legislature in which Democrats hold lop-sided majorities in both houses and in which those majorities are weighted heavily toward liberals. If Davis wins reelection, he will face a centrist governor’s worst nightmare: a Legislature in which Democrats hold lop-sided majorities in both houses and in which those majorities are weighted heavily toward liberals.

There are still six months of campaigning before the general election ratifies the Legislature’s make-up, but we already know the Republican legislative caucus will be more conservative and the Democratic caucus more liberal. Sacramento’s moderate middle has taken it on the chin.

The polarization of the Legislature began with the reapportionment deal that Republican lawmakers cut with the Democrats, who control the political map-making. It preserved the “status quo” and ensured mostly “safe” seats for both parties. In exchange for their support, GOP legislators staunched further attrition of their already anemic numbers. The deal also headed off potential Democratic House gains that could tip the balance of power in Congress.

Then the ideological dogfight in the party’s gubernatorial primary and March’s historically low voter turnout boosted die-hard conservatives over more moderate candidates running in Republican primaries for the newly carved seats.

Four GOP lawmakers--Mike Briggs of Fresno, Dick Dickerson of Redding, Anthony Pescetti of Rancho Cordova and David Kelley of Idyllwild--voted for the current state budget. In last month’s primaries, two of them lost their bids for higher office. Pescetti and Kelley chose not to run for reelection. You can bet that the Republicans who will likely replace these four in the lower house--or any GOP lawmaker, for that matter--will think long and hard before making a budget deal with Democrats.

In addition, the New Majority political action committee, described by the California Target Book as “wealthy Orange County donors favoring moderate GOP candidates,” lost big. Six of the nine contenders supported by the PAC were defeated, among them budget “turncoat” Dickerson. Dickerson lost the state Senate nomination to Assemblyman Sam Aanestad of Grass Valley, considered a more “reliable” conservative, in a safe Republican district. Another PAC-supported moderate, Assemblywoman Charlene Zettel of Poway, lost the state Senate nomination to Assemblyman Dennis Hollingsworth, who had the backing of party conservatives.

With no fight for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, the ideological war intensified in legislative primaries, which pitted two intraparty factions against each other. The “mod squad” is a group of centrist, pro-business Assembly Democrats who tend to side with corporate and agricultural interests in their battles with unions, consumer and environmental groups. The “mods” have wielded real clout in Sacramento, sometimes providing Davis with back-up for his own business-friendly proposals.

The new “progressive coalition” is an alliance of liberal Democrats concentrated mostly in the state Senate and traditional Democratic constituencies and contributors--labor unions, teachers, trial lawyers, environmentalists and consumer groups.

The internecine fragging was ferocious, because the philosophical bent of the Legislature was at stake. With Democratic majorities likely entrenched for at least the next decade, “the conflict,” as one activist put it, “has changed from partisanship to ideology.”

In the low-turnout Democratic primary, liberals dominated the electorate, and moderates got their clocks cleaned.

Business interests lined up behind centrist Democrats. Trial lawyers and unions put their clout behind more liberal candidates. The Political Pulse newsletter reported, “Democratic candidates backed by trial-lawyer groups went three for four in defeating candidates backed by business interests in seats where they competed.”

In the L.A. area, according to a union release, labor backed six Assembly “candidates with strong pro-worker credentials” running “against well-funded, big-business-backed candidates.” L.A. unions counted six primary victories in safe Democratic seats.

Former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg, a termed-out leader of the “mods,” saw his handpicked candidate, centrist Andrei Cherny, lose the primary to replace him in a heavily Democratic district. Two pro-business committees, JOBS PAC and Californians for Common Sense, reportedly spent at least $150,000 supporting Cherny against Assembly staffer Lloyd Levine. But according to California Journal, Cherny’s pro-voucher, pro-tort reform views “brought labor, teachers, and trial lawyers steaming into the Levine camp.”

The wrangle over the ballooning budget deficit offers a preview of the ideological roadblocks either Davis or Simon will face as governor. Simon’s proposal of a 15% across-the-board budget cut is totally out of sync with Democratic priorities; it will go nowhere in the liberal-dominated Legislature.

Davis has his own problems. This year, GOP legislators, with little risk of a voter backlash, could decide to embarrass the governor and deny Democrats the two-thirds vote necessary to pass the budget, perhaps until well into the fall. Then there’s Davis’ prickly relationship with legislators of his own party; the state’s most powerful lawmaker, state Senate President Pro Tem John Burton, personifies it.

Davis has pledged to balance the budget without raising taxes. But to ease the cash crunch, he has to find a way to cut billions in appropriations without angering fellow Democrats and traditional party constituencies with significant stakes in government programs. Burton, who leads the liberal opposition to quite a few of the governor’s proposals, doesn’t see balancing the budget without a multibillion-dollar tax increase.

The dearth of affection between Davis and Burton is legendary. Their agendas don’t mesh; neither do their personalities. The liberal senator exudes impatience with the governor’s cautious centrism, and Davis appears flummoxed by Burton’s flamboyant frankness.

David Doak, Davis’ media advisor, obliquely nailed the problem when he addressed Simon’s reticence to grapple with the press corps. If Simon, Doak asked a reporter, “can’t handle questions from reporters, how will he handle questions from John Burton?” Burton and Sacramento’s re-energized liberal majority have little to lose opposing either Davis or Simon.

Such legislative independence could be hell for the next governor.